Wall Street Journal Further Outs McDonnell’s Drilling Nonsense
Visions of sugar plums have clouded the truth for Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell. An op ed in today’s Wall Street Journal starts to pop the bubble.
Julian Walker with the Virginian-Pilot has had prior conversations with Dr. James V. Koch, the alleged “source” of McDonnell’s magic drilling numbers. He tried again to reach him for a more recent response but failed. But Russell Gold with the Wall Street Journal was successful.
But what’s the proof that offshore drilling would be an economic boom for the commonwealth? Mr. McDonnell cites the following:
A 2005 study by a former president at Old Dominion University forecast that offshore natural gas production alone off of the Atlantic coast near Virginia would, over a 10-year period, likely create at least 2,578 new jobs, induce capital investment of $7.84 billion, yield $644 million in direct and indirect payroll, and result in $271 million in state and local taxes. The study also estimated that there could be up to 500 million barrels of oil in this lease area – enough to fuel all four million cars in Virginia for more than four years.
An internet search for the study came up blank. Messages with Mr. McDonnell’s transition team seeking to see the study were unreturned. We were dumbfounded until we got an email from James V. Koch, the study’s author.
But he wrote that it wasn’t really a study, at least not in the academic sense. Mr. Koch said he was asked to do a quick look at the issue. Since “I did not have time to parse Virginia’s situation in detail, I examined the experiences of Louisiana and a Canadian province” and extrapolated. The figures “were very rough estimates” and the topic would benefit from a detailed, thorough study.
By the way, even Mr. Koch couldn’t provide us with a copy of the study. It’s not the type of thing he puts on the resume, he said. “That does not suggest the quoted study was somehow deficient, only that it was quick work. I was not painting the Sistine Chapel,” he said.
This reinforces remarks made by Dr. Koch to Delegate Joe Bouchard on Sept. 29, 2009:
“My estimates were not a definitive study. That’s why I never published it and don’t include it in the list of studies I’ve completed. A lot more work needs to be done to produce a real study. It will need to take into account numerous other factors, including environmental costs. You may quote me on this.”
Del. Bouchard further summarizes Dr. Koch’s explanation: “MMS estimates of oil and gas reserves in the Virginia OCS area are based on wells off the coast of Nova Scotia, almost 1,000 miles away”. The “estimated benefits assume that Virginia develops the totality of the oil and gas infrastructure found in the Gulf Coast states”. We have nothing of the extremely expensive infrastructure necessary to support McDonnell’s fuzzy numbers.
It’s gonna be a long, long and silly four years!
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December 31st, 2009 at 9:04 am
McDonnell’s plan is based on the following assumptions:
1. A Democratic-majority Congress and President Obama will allow the sale of offshore oil leases.
2. They will finalize a map favorable to Virginia.
3. They will develop a revenue-sharing arrangement with Virginia.
4. The Navy will reverse their opposition to offshore drilling (or move their training elsewhere).
5. The amount of oil and gas offshore Virginia is about the same as Louisiana and Nova Scotia.
6. The pumping, storage, and other infrastructure will be developed (where in Virginia Beach?).
7. No oil leaks will ever harm Virginia Beach tourism.
8. All this will happen within the next four years, during McDonnell’s one and only term of office, in plenty of time to fund our transportation needs.
Other than that, it’s a slam dunk!
December 31st, 2009 at 9:12 am
Either McDonnell is dumb as a stump, or…
He knows his plan will never happen. It is nothing but cynical political posturing for his right-wing supporters. When it fails (as it will), he can rail against the environmentalists and Democrats in Washington and blame them for Virginia’s lack of transportation funding. Now that sounds like a plan.
December 31st, 2009 at 11:03 am
While I voted for Deeds:
I am in favor of off shore oil drilling. Every drop of oil we get from off shore while we are consuming it reduces the amount of oil we need to import.
It is common sense that claims that drilling locally for local consumption is better for the global environment. Some experts claim that while there are risks from drilling, the real risks are from transportation.
I have only what I think of as fuel efficient vehicles in my driveway. I am wondering just where people like Eileen (fuel efficient VW) and David Campbell (fuel efficient Toyota) think that percentage of fuel they still pump in their vehicles comes from?
I am in favor of winding down on our dependence on fossil fuels. I am not in favor of demanding that every barrel of oil we consume must come from foreign sources in the mean time. It is both bad for the economy and bad for the global environment.
December 31st, 2009 at 10:22 pm
When it comes to Virginia, it is a question of appropriateness. And I would argue that it is not at all prudent to drill off Virginia’s shores. Too much risk (spills, Navy/NASA conflicts, tourism, fishing, etc.) for too little gain.
January 1st, 2010 at 7:01 am
A Rasmussen poll released in December shows 68% of Americans support offshore drilling with only 20% opposed and the rest undecided.
The only reference I could find of Virginia citizens, only, being polled was released in July 2008 and showed 70% of Virginians in favor of off shore drilling. While this poll is at least a little dated, I will note that Rasmussen in its latest poll of all Americans stated the margins were virtually unchanged from those obtained just prior to the November 2008 elections.